Hi anonymous user,
Since your calculation is pretty specific your best bet would be to speak with someone on the Billing team or create a free ticket with them to figure out the total cost.
The two you mentioned are related to authentication attempts, and since the pricing page includes the number of requests I believe these would be included:
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/security/threat-protection/auditing/event-4776
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/security/threat-protection/auditing/event-4648
https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/support/options/
https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/support/create-ticket/
For authentication information, you can also check the sign-in logs: https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/active-directory/authentication/howto-mfa-reporting