Calculate past forecast accuracy

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Important

This content is archived and is not being updated. For the latest documentation, see Microsoft Dynamics 365 product documentation. For the latest release plans, see Dynamics 365 and Microsoft Power Platform release plans.

Applies To: Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012 R3

This topic describes how to calculate the accuracy of past demand forecasts against past actual demand. In Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012 R3, forecast accuracy is measured by using these key performance indicators: mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

When you calculate forecast accuracy you define the period during which historical data is collected. You can also select criteria to filter the data. For example, you can filter the data for a particular company or item allocation key. After you’ve calculated the forecast accuracy, view the results in a Microsoft Excel file.

Prerequisites

The following table shows the prerequisites that must be in place before you start.

Category

Prerequisite

Setup

Demand forecasting has been set up. For more information, see Set up demand forecasting.

Data

A baseline forecast has been created. For more information, see Create a baseline forecast.

Calculate past forecast accuracy

To calculate forecast accuracy, follow these steps:

  1. Click Master planning > Periodic > Demand forecasting > Calculate demand forecast accuracy.

  2. Complete the following fields.

    Field

    Description

    Forecast bucket

    Select the forecast bucket to use when forecast accuracy is calculated.

    Start of historical horizon

    Select the start date of the period during which historical data is collected.

    End of historical horizon

    Select the end date of the period during which historical data is collected.

    Excel demand forecast file path

    This field contains, by default, the location for saving the demand forecast file that is specified in the Demand forecasting parameters form, but you can override it. For example, reuse the path but rename the file to ForecastAccuracy.

  3. In the Filters field group, click Select to open a query where you can select the filter criteria to apply when the forecast accuracy is calculated. For example, you can calculate the forecast accuracy for a specific item allocation key.

    The use of filters also improves performance.

  4. Click OK to run the calculation.

View the demand forecast accuracy sheet in Excel

To view the Forecast accuracy in Excel, follow these steps:

  1. Open the demand forecast accuracy file. You can do this in the following ways:

    • After you calculate forecast accuracy, and a message informs you that the demand forecast accuracy was calculated, double-click the message or click Open Excel file.

    • Browse to the location that you specified in the Excel demand forecast file path field.

  2. In the Excel file, click Enable Content. This enables the content in the PivotTable report, so that you can modify it. You only have to do this step the first time that you open the Excel file.

  3. In the Forecast accuracy sheet, in the PivotTable Field List, select Released products > Released product to display the following columns:

    • Error absolute – The difference between the historical demand quantity and the adjusted forecast quantity.

    • Forecast error percentage – The error absolute quantity expressed as a percentage of the adjusted forecast quantity.

Set up demand forecasting

Create a baseline forecast

View a demand forecast in Excel

Adjust a demand forecast in Excel

Import a demand forecast to Microsoft Dynamics AX

Remove outliers from historical transaction data when calculating a demand forecast

Technical information for system administrators

If you don't have access to the pages that are used to complete this task, contact your system administrator and provide the information that is shown in the following table.

Category

Prerequisite

Configuration keys

Click System administration > Setup > Licensing > License configuration. Expand the Trade license key, expand the Inventory forecast configuration key, and then select the Demand forecasting (ReqDemandPlanning) configuration key.

Security roles

To perform this task, you must be a member of the Production planner security role.

See also

Business process: demand forecasting