RESOLVED — Root cause identified and fixed locally. Posting for anyone who hits the same wall.
Update: I solved this myself. Sharing the actual cause and fix here, since no tier-1 script would ever have found it.
What it really was
The 0xC0000409 is not a random memory corruption, as I first assumed. On modern Windows 11, this NTSTATUS is a controlled security fast-fail — the app deliberately terminates itself when an integrity or dependency check fails during startup. It only looked like the app was "dying at the XAML layer" because that's the exact moment the WinAppSDK runtime bootstrapper initializes.
The Xbox app (Microsoft.GamingApp) depends on WindowsAppRuntime 1.8. That framework package was present and healthy. But its mandatory companion packages — MicrosoftCorporationII.WinAppRuntime.Main.1.8 and ...Singleton — were stuck in a broken state: PackageOffline, DataOffline, NotAvailable, and pinned to an older build (8000.675.1142.0) than the framework the app required (8000.859.21.0).
So on every launch, the bootstrapper tried to compose the runtime, found its companion packages registered-but-unavailable, and fast-failed before a single frame could render. No window, no error dialog, nothing in Event Viewer. Completely silent.
Why none of the "official" fixes worked
This is the part worth flagging. Reinstalling the app didn't help, because the app was never the problem. Re-registering AppX packages didn't help, because the broken companion packages stayed registered in their offline state. And — most absurd of all — the In-Place Upgrade didn't help, because it preserves the existing package registrations and quietly carried the orphaned, broken runtime packages straight across the repair. The repair install rebuilt almost everything except the one thing that was actually broken.
The fix
Remove the broken companion packages so the system can no longer reference them in their dead state, then let the runtime bootstrapper re-provision a clean, consistent set on next launch. Once the corrupted Main and Singleton packages were gone and the framework was left clean at a single consistent version, the Xbox app opened on the very first try.
The note to Microsoft
I'll be honest: it's a poor look that a paying Game Pass subscriber had to capture a ProcMon trace, decode an NTSTATUS code, and manually surgery the WinAppSDK dependency chain to open a first-party app — on Microsoft's own OS. A broken companion package leaving an app to fail completely silently, with nothing in Event Viewer and surviving a full In-Place Upgrade, is a serious diagnosability gap. At minimum, the runtime should surface a real error when its companion packages are unavailable, instead of fast-failing into a void. The platform clearly has the information; it just throws it away.
Leaving this here for the next person who finds themselves staring at a silent XboxPcApp.exe wondering if they're losing their mind. You're not. Check your WindowsAppRuntime companion packages.