Dear Mark
Yes, based on your description and the linked Microsoft Q&A thread, it appears that Windows does not automatically shut down if a battery driver initially reports a capacity below the critical level.
Instead, it seems to trigger the Critical battery notification but not the shutdown action. This behavior suggests that Windows expects to see a transition from a non-critical state to a critical state to initiate the shutdown sequence.
Therefore, your observation that the battery driver needs to "fake" some good capacity readings before sending the real "critical" battery capacity is a valid conclusion given this apparent Windows behavior.
Best Regards,