Update: I have found a fix for this. Sadly, I still don’t know the root cause of the error and found the fix somewhat randomly while trying to diagnose whether the Windows machine was actually rejecting the request, or never seeing it. netstat wasn’t a great help, but on the Windows Settings network page, I tried the “diagnose” option against the wireless adapter. (It wasn’t showing any problems and, during all of this, other network activity was progressing normally, so there was no indication of an adapter problem.)
The “diagnose” process did its usual thing of assuming that there was a problem, and trying to “fix” it. I therefore don’t know everything it does/did, but it certainly included disabling and re-enabling the adapter, and it declared it “fixed”. To my surprise, RDP then worked.
Maybe the device driver had become mildly corrupted, or just left in a “failed” state - and may or may not have been as a result of some Windows Maintenance… but I can now add this to my set of fixes alongside rebooting everything.