Sorry, that was a lot of questions without a real fix. Let me give you something to try instead. Since microsoft.com works fine, the most likely cause is either a browser notification permission that's spamming you with a fake alert, or a stale device registration on your Microsoft account.
For the browser case, open your browser's site settings, go to Notifications, and remove any site you don't recognize, then run a full scan in Windows Security. For the registration case, sign in at account.microsoft.com/devices, remove this PC from the list, restart, and sign back in to Windows and Office so it re-registers. If it's a Windows activation message, running the Activation troubleshooter under Settings > System > Activation is the quickest check.
If none of that helps, a screenshot or the exact wording of the notification would let me pinpoint it right away. Where does it appear when it shows up?