Edit

WorksheetFunction.Forecast_ETS_STAT method (Excel)

  • Article

Returns a statistical value as a result of time series forecasting.

Syntax

expression.Forecast_ETS_STAT (Arg1, Arg2, Arg3, Arg4, Arg5, Arg6)

expression A variable that represents a WorksheetFunction object.

Parameters

Name Required/Optional Data type Description
Arg1 Required Variant Values: the historical values, for which you want to forecast the next points.
Arg2 Required Variant Timeline: the independent array or range of dates or numeric data. The values in the timeline must have a consistent step between them and can't be zero. See Remarks.
Arg3 Required Double Statistic_type: A numeric value between 1 and 8, indicating which statistic will be returned for the calculated forecast.
Arg4 Optional Variant Confidence level: A numerical value between 0 and 1 (exclusive), indicating a confidence level for the calculated confidence interval. See Remarks.
Arg5 Optional Variant Data completions: Although the timeline requires a constant step between data points, Forecast_ETS_STAT supports up to 30% missing data, and automatically adjusts for it. See Remarks.
Arg6 Optional Variant Aggregation: Although the timeline requires a constant step between data points, Forecast_ETS_STAT aggregates multiple points that have the same time stamp. See Remarks.

Return value

Double

Remarks

It'sn't necessary to sort the timeline (Arg2), because Forecast_ETS_STAT sorts it implicitly for calculations. If Forecast_ETS_STAT can't identify a constant step in the timeline, it returns run-time error 1004. If the timeline contains duplicate values, Forecast_ETS_STAT also returns an error. If the ranges of the timeline and values aren't all of the same size, Forecast_ETS_STAT returns run-time error 1004.

The statistic_type parameter (Arg3) indicates which statistic is requested by this function. The following optional statistics can be returned:

  • Alpha parameter of ETS algorithm. Returns the base value parameter—a higher value gives more weight to recent data points.
  • Beta parameter of ETS algorithm. Returns the trend value parameter—a higher value gives more weight to the recent trend.
  • Gamma parameter of ETS algorithm. Returns the trend value parameter—a higher value gives more weight to the recent trend.
  • MASE metric. Returns the mean absolute scaled error metric, a measure of the accuracy of forecasts.
  • SMAPE metric. Returns the symmetric mean absolute percentage error metric, an accuracy measure based on percentage errors.
  • MAE metric. Returns the symmetric mean absolute percentage error metric, an accuracy measure based on percentage errors.
  • RMSE metric. Returns the root mean squared error metric, a measure of the differences between predicted and observed values.
  • Step size detected. Returns the step size detected in the historical timeline.

A confidence interval (Arg4) of 95% means that 95% of future points are expected to fall within this radius from the result that Forecast_ETS forecasted (with normal distribution). Using confidence intervals can help you grasp the accuracy of the predicted model. A smaller interval implies more confidence in the prediction for this specific point.

For example, for a 90% confidence interval, a 90% confidence level is computed (90% of future points are to fall within this radius from prediction). The default value is 95%. For numbers outside of the range (0,1), Forecast_ETS_STAT returns an error.

Passing 0 for the data completions parameter (Arg5) instructs the algorithm to account for missing points as zeros. The default value of 1 accounts for missing points by computing them to be the average of the neighboring points. If there is more than 30% missing data, Forecast_ETS_STAT returns run-time error 1004.

The aggregation parameter (Arg6) is a numeric value specifying the method to use to aggregate several values that have the same time stamp. The default value of 0 specifies AVERAGE, while other numbers between 1 and 6 specify SUM, COUNT, COUNTA, MIN, MAX, and MEDIAN.

Support and feedback

Have questions or feedback about Office VBA or this documentation? Please see Office VBA support and feedback for guidance about the ways you can receive support and provide feedback.