The decision to upgrade or downgrade to be taken based on the capacity. Capacity is an indicator of load on an API Management instance. It reflects usage of resources (CPU, memory) and network queue lengths. Azure portal allows you to view the Capacity Metrics from the Azure portal and by using you can take scaling decision.
There is a great article in Azure that explain how you can use capacity for scaling decisions, this should help you.
Also, it is interesting to note that you can configure auto-scaling. refer: https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/api-management/api-management-howto-autoscale
Hope this helps