Using the SysInternals Process Monitor, it appears to correspond to a CreateFile NAME NOT FOUND failure in the project's backup directory:
C:\Users\YOURNAME\AppData\Local\Microsoft\VisualStudio\BackupFiles\YOUR_PROJECT_NAME~AutoRecover.YOUR_PROJECT_NAME.rc
Around the same time there are also QueryDirectory failures in the same directory with resource.h & resource.hm - the latter being suspicious because I no longer have the old WinHelp in the project.
On further checking, some of my dialogs still had the Help ID property set for some controls. Changing those to false no longer generates the resource.hm file, and the problem has stopped, and I note that the Git Changes pane no longer shows my .rc file with a * when I make a change to a dialog that hasn't been saved (which it used to do with the help IDs set true).